4 Conclusion

The nowcast and forecast analysis aims to address the specific reporting lag issue faced by the PRESS, rather than to substitute it. Even with longer lag, PRESS still reports the most reliable and comprehensive data on funding to statistics. The PRESS database continues to serve as the source data for SDG Indicator 17.19.1.

The outputs from nowcast and forecast also vary in their accuracy. While the merged database is as robust as PRESS, and the nowcast results are relatively reliable, the forecast analysis is based on several assumptions. Results produced through the nowcast and forecast analyses can therefore be used for different products to serve different purposes:

  • The nowcast on disbursements and some information provided by the harmonised dataset can be directly presented in PRESS going forward, as a natural extension of its current content, based on existing data sources such as CRS.
  • The forecast for funding gaps could be presented in separate policy briefs due to its speculative nature.
  • The complete, harmonised database can also be deployed on a platform such as Bern Network’s Clearinghouse for Financing Development Data to be used as a dynamic planning tool by development partners.

The immediate next step in improving the new methodology is to strengthen the communication and consultation between PARIS21, donors, and recipients. Benefits from such consultations would lead to further robust results by correcting erroneous information contained in IATI data, validating assumptions on the termination or continuation of projects in assumptions for forecasting, and enhancing data sharing in general. Consultations for this product will also help PARIS21 to shape its work in order to better meet the demand of its stakeholders.

As the COVID‐19 pandemic will affect donors’ GNI and consequently their ODA, fluctuations in development financing for data and statistics can be expected. Despite the difficulty these anomalies will bring to the analyses, the transparency and timeliness of the information on funding to data and statistics have also become more relevant, as identified in Part I of PRESS 2020. The results from these analyses can play a crucial role in informing and supporting